Dr. Steven McCabe, Associate Professor, Birmingham City University
The current general election campaign, already feeling like it commenced months ago, but with four weeks still to go before we vote, is throwing up a variety of policy announcements from the major parties intended to seduce various groups to support them on July 4th.
In the two weeks since he surprisingly announced a general election to take place, incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunakhas looked decidedly lacking in the sort of brio displayed by his former boss Boris Johnson in the lead up to the ‘Get Brexit Done’ election held just two weeks before Christmas on Thursday 12th December.
Sunak commitments have included a plan to impose an annual cap on immigration visas to reduce the number of foreign workers and dependants entering the UK, declaring the Tories would remove availability of so called ‘Mickey Mouse’ university degrees in preference to apprenticeships, as well as promising to reintroduce national service for 18-year-olds.
Additionally, in what’s obviously intended to appeal to ‘grey’voters who’ve traditionally offered greatest support for the Tories, there’s been a commitment to ensure the personal threshold for taxation by recipients of the state pension will remain higher than the annual amount they are paid in ‘old age’ pension.
However, so far, Sunak’s announcements have failed to provide any improvement in opinion polls for the Conservatives.
According to the latest YouGov poll published on Monday, Labour is on course to win the greatest number of seats of any party in an election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924 (Coates, 2024).
Using MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification), that’s proved to be highly accurate in the past, YouGov’s poll predicts Labour will gain 222 seats to have 422 MPs after the general election, a majority of 194.
This poll shows that the Conservatives would lose a whopping 232 seats and end up with only 140 MPs.
This is pretty dreadful but, it must be said, not as bad as a large-scale MRP poll carried out by Electoral Calculus which surveyed 10,000 people and published last Friday showing the Tories might win an utterly dismal 66 seats on 4th July (Somerville, 2024).
For completeness, this poll, showing the Conservatives on 19%, predicted that Labour, on 46%, would win what would be a phenomenal 476 seats, the LibDems, on 12%, would be just behind the Tories with 59 seats.
Though Labour certainly appears to enjoy what’s a very comfortable lead at this stage, it belies the sense that potential voters lack enthusiasm for the party and, feedback indicates that what they’ve heard thus far from Starmer et al is not foiling them with the sort of excitement that was palpable before Labour under Blair gained power in May 1997.
Labour, like the Tories, has yet to release a manifesto for the general election.
However, in May Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer announced six commitments that are deliberately vague; to deliver economic stability, to cut NHS waiting times, to establish a new border security command, to set up ‘Great British Energy’, to ‘Crack down’ on antisocial behaviour and to actively recruit 6,500 teachers.
Notably, the Labour party has stated it has no intention of increasing taxes if they win the general election and Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, has declared the party will never “play fast and loose” with the UK’s finances.
Labour, under Starmer, it’s made clear by those speaking on behalf of the party, will be “fiscally responsible”.
This is explicitly intended as a riposte to the claim made by Tories that when they took over in 2010 it inherited a broken economy created by labour’s profligacy.
Nonetheless, Labour has committed to extending the windfall tax imposed on energy companies’ profits, that private equity bonuses are “taxed appropriately” and that VAT will be charged on private school fees.
Sir Keir Starmer, it certainly appears, in adopting an ultra-cautious approach to making only commitments he’s confident can be delivered, may be banking on getting into power as, understandably, the immediate priority and seeing what finance is available to go beyond a campaign commentators consider somewhat lacklustre.
And so, the election campaign appeared to be trundling along with Sunak appearing increasingly desperate to make commitments to gain support for his party and Labour unwilling to utter anything substantive or radical lest it be used as a weapon against them.
Though there are going to be a number of leadership debates few believe that they would shift opinions considerably.
The one held on Tuesday doesn’t seem like it’s shifted the dial though it put the issue of possible tax increases after the election centre stage (Mason, 2024).
This indeed may prove to be the case and come 5th July when the votes have been counted, and on current evidence we can expect to see a Labour government for the first time in 14 years.
However, on Monday, Nigel Farage, who’s campaigned to become an MP on seven previous occasions – and failed – announced his intention to try again at this general election for seat of Clacton.
As well running as a candidate for Reform UK of which he was honorary president, will now become its leader in replacing Richard Tice.
Reform UK, primarily opposed to immigration and the government’s Net Zero energy policy, grew out of the Brexit Party formed by Farage and Catherine Blaiklock in November 2018 after he resigned UK Independence Party (UKIP) which campaigned for Euroscepticism and a ‘no-deal Brexit’.
Farage’s announcement is likely to energise the election campaign and will, on the basis of his past form, even reshape the political landscape.
Having left the Conservative Party in 1992 following the signing of the Maastricht Treaty by then PM John Major, Farage formed UKIP, a right-wing party dedicated to the objective of the UK leaving the European Union (EU).
Clacton is certainly a winnable seat for Farage and previously held by Douglas Carswell who, though elected as a Conservative, defected to UKIP in August 2014.
Though not required to do so, Carswell tiggered a by-electionthat was held on 9th October that year and became UKIP’s first elected MP.
Writing in The Spectator, Katie Balls reports that though the current MP for Clacton, Conservative Giles Watling, elected in 2017, currently enjoys a majority of 24,702, there’s a sense among local people that Farage may win (2024).
Like many political commentators, Balls believes Farage’s return to frontline politics is causing concern among Conservative strategists.
As well as being a sharp communicator who appeals to the sense of resentment among those who consider their prospects have been undermined by immigrants, Farage, in his role as leader of UKIP, changed the course of history.
His Euroscepticism created sufficient pressure within the Conservatives who were in government in 2010-2015 to force leader David Cameron to announce what’s arguably the worst decision of any post-wartime leader, that if his party should win the 2015 general election, there’d be a referendum on continued membership of the EU.
The outcome of this referendum was, that the UK should leave the EU, is testimony to Farage’s influence as a political disruptor.
Having campaigned to remain, on the morning after the vote, Cameron resigned and was replaced by Theresa May whose three years and 11 days PM will be forever remembered as having tried, and failed, to negotiate a deal with the EU to leave with as little disruption to the UK’s interests as possible.
May’s political obituary – she’s stepping down at this election – will include many achievements.
However, May’s judgement in bringing a certain Boris Johnson into her government is one she surely rues.
Johnson who I’ve written about extensively, undermined May in her valiant but ill-fated negotiations with the EU and, following his resignation as Foreign Secretary, having been largely disastrous and gaff-prone, manoeuvred to eventually replace May in the summer of 2019.
What followed – including illegally proroguing Parliament – will be remembered by historians as the wilful disobedience of procedure and customs by a narcissistic libertine who besmirched British democracy.
Farage, we can safely assume, will have enthusiastically supported Johnson’s hard-nosed approach to dealing with the EU.
In standing down candidates from the Brexit Party in the December 2019 general election, Farage actively contributed to the surprise win by Johnson who then enforced his ‘oven-ready deal’ that’s been so devastatingly damaging to the UK’s economy as well emphasising social division.
Lasting three years and 44 days, slightly longer than his immediate predecessor, Johnson’s tenure as PM proved as chaotic as his many critics and detractors predicted would bethe case if he was elected leader.
The headline published in The Guardian immediately prior to the leadership contest to replace May by his former boss, eminent historian and political commentator, Sir Max Hastings, that Johnson was “utterly unfit to be prime minister” was typical of those who knew him better than the ‘lovable’ comic character he pretended to be (2019).
Johnson’s forced departure, when mass resignations by ministers rendered him effectively unable to govern, led to Liz Truss whose belief in ‘trickledown’ economics and imposition of the ludicrous ‘mini budget’ that caused the UK’s position to suffer at the hands of international money markets, by having served only 49 days as PM, means she achieved political history as having spent least time in No. 10.
And so, in October 2022, Rishi Sunak, who passionate campaigned for the UK’s Brexiter became Britain’s first ethnic minority PM without a vote being cast.
All of the above may be directly related to Farage in hissuccess in getting Cameron to hold the referendum on June 23rd 2016.
Farage, an inveterate media personality whose words have a powerful effect, will delight in his status as a politician who can undermine the major political parties in this election.
In the short-term, his fire will be directed against the Conservative Party he believes not to have implemented Brexit as advocates believed it should be, primarily by of leaving the EU with no deal and reverting to economically self-destructive World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
Taking votes from the Tories will probably contribute to the Conservatives losing the levers of control and, as polls suggest, suffering an horrific loss.
Eminent psephologist Professor Sir John Curtice believes Farage’s announcement that he’s become leader of Reform UK “will deal a significant blow to the Conservatives” and could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats in the general election (Sharma, 2024).
It’s indicative of the concern felt within Tory ranks that Conservative candidate for Dudley North Marco Longhi, who held the seat up to this election, has publicly appealed to Farage not to field Reform UK candidates in seats with right-wing MPs in his party (Swinford and Dathan, 2024).
For good measure, Longhi believes that Farage, a “hugely talented” politician, should be given a peerage as a way, it must be assumed of assuaging his anger at the current approach adopted by the Conservative Party (ibid).
Nonetheless, seeing the Conservatives, a party he blames for record levels of immigration, being punished at the ballot box, is to allow Farage to engage in schadenfreude.
There’s concern that in response the Conservative Party may be tempted to become increasingly right wing in its polices and direction than at present.
In a trenchant criticism of the Tories, the Financial Times’ UK Chief Political Commentator and Executive Editor, Robert Shrimsley believes that the Conservatives, a party that largely, so willingly embraced Brexit, may become its “last casualty”(2024).
Shrimsley asserts the Tory Party “has fallen prey to an increasingly narrow sect….[that’s] ceased trying to be a unifying, national party and instead prioritises a subset of mostly older voters” (ibid).
Worryingly, certainly for the sake of the future of the Conservatives, he warns that “Many Tories dream of a rapprochement and realignment with the Faragists” (ibid).
However, Pippa Crerar in The Guardian reports that Jeremy Hunt, chancellor until the election, has urged those within his party to maintain its centrist stance – from where he believes elections are won – and not to respond to Farage’s renewed influence following his decision to stand as MP for Clacton and lead Reform UK (2024).
But Labour isn’t immune from Farage.
Farage’s promise to “lead a political revolt” and ensure he changes the “political status quo” suggests he may gain sympathy among Labour voters in so called ‘Red Wall’ seats.
Labour should take heed of Farage’s claim that Reform UK aims to become the opposition in this parliament and the largest party by 2029.
It’s significant that Nadine Dorries, culture secretary under Boris Johnson, has claimed Reform will overtake the Conservative Party in the polls by the weekend (Telegraph, 2024).
According to the latest weekly YouGov poll carried out on Monday, shows Labour on 40% the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7% (Coates, 2024a).
Though Labour’s overall standing is down by 6%, they would still win a huge majority aided by Reform’s increased popularity (Scott, 2024).
Farage, who exults in his tag as a political disruptor par excellence may indeed be about to dramatically reshape the system he claims is broken and has led to a country in which nothing works.
Many voters are apparently disillusioned with both the current party in government under Rishi Sunak and have little enthusiasm for Labour under Keir Starmer stander.
Rafael Behr writing in the Guardian describes Farage as a someone able to present hardline nationalism in a way that’s compelling to those who “feel insecure about their role in society, whose ambitions have been thwarted, who feel ignored by politicians and who correlate their unhappiness with an influx of foreigners” (2024).
Regardless of whether Farage becomes MP for Clacton on 4thJuly, his influence will be to be an agent provocateur who will happily continue to engage in what he does best, undermining whichever political party is governing after the forthcoming election.
Likely to be Labour under Starmer, the party should be aware of the ongoing threat Farage poses and make plans for persuasively arguing against the mellifluously toxic rhetoric Farage exudes as part of his performative act as a ‘serious’ politician.
Behr contends Farage is “a self-serving amplifier of impotent rage, not a purveyor of practical solutions” (ibid).
Dismissing Farage as an irrelevance, as has been done in the past, comes with immense peril.
Steven’s latest chapter, ‘Boris Johnson, the green shopping trolley’, was recently published in Toxic News? Covering Climate Change, edited by Mair, Ryley and Beck and published by Bite-Sized Books, London. His next chapter, ‘When the Circus Leaves Town’ will be included in General Election 24, edited by John Mair, and published in July.
References
Balls, K. (2024), Clacton goes wild for Nigel Farage, Spectator, 4th June, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/clacton-goes-wild-for-nigel-farage/, accessed 5th June
Crerar, P. (2014), ‘Jeremy Hunt warns against Tory lurch to right: ‘Elections are won from the centre ground’’, Guardian, 5th June, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/05/jeremy-hunt-warns-against-tory-lurch-to-right-reform-farage, accessed 6th June
Coates, S. (2024), ‘General Election 2024: Tory wipeout and 12 ministers at risk of losing seats, YouGov poll suggests’, Sky News, 4th June, https://news.sky.com/story/labour-could-be-on-course-for-194-seat-commons-majority-yougov-poll-13147370, accessed 5th June
Coates, S. (2024a), ‘Reform UK pulls to within two points of Tories in latest YouGov poll’, Sky News, 5th June, https://news.sky.com/story/reform-uk-pulls-to-within-two-points-of-tories-in-latest-yougov-poll-13148396, accessed 6thJune
Hastings, M. (2019), ‘I was Boris Johnson’s boss: he is utterly unfit to be prime minister’, Guardian, 24th June, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain, accessed 5th June
Mason, C. (2024), ‘Will Sunak’s dubious tax claim stick in voters’ minds?’, BBC Politics Website, 5th June, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55e9dz79lo, accessed 5th June
Scott, G. (2024), ‘Farage bounce for Reform as party gains 7,000 new members’, Times, 5th June, https://www.thetimes.com/article/reform-uk-polls-nigel-farage-two-point-boost-w7bwp5kwm, accessed 6th June
Sharma, S. (2024), ‘John Curtice says Nigel Farage could cost Tories up to 60 seats’, Independent, 4th June, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-curtice-nigel-farage-tories-election-b2556181.html, accessed 5th June
Shrimsley, R. (2024), ‘Behold the final casualties of Brexit’, Financial Times, 5th June, https://www.ft.com/content/820de7fe-3ec6-4585-a4ce-c450261b3794, accessed 6th June
Somerville, E. (2014), ‘Tories face being reduced to 66 seats, new poll suggests’, Telegraph, 31st May, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/31/tories-face-being-reduced-to-just-66-seats-new-mrp-poll/, accessed 5thJune
Swinford, S. and Dathan, M. (2024), ‘Don’t split the right-wing vote, Tory begs Farage’, Times, 4th June, https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/dont-split-the-right-wing-vote-tory-mp-begs-farage-62jd8xxgf#:~:text=Marco%20Longhi%2C%20the%20Tory%20candidate%20for%20Dudley%20North%20and%20the,have%20been%20given%20a%20peerage., accessed 5th June
Telegraph (2024), ‘Reform will overtake Tories this weekend, claims Dorries’, Telegraph General Election Live, 5th June, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/05/general-election-latest-news-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer/, accessed 6thJune
Centre for Brexit Studies Blog 